Modelling of Article 6 Implementation Scenarios – Significance for the EBRD Regions

Modelling of Article 6 Implementation Scenarios – Significance for the EBRD Regions

This report investigates the role emissions trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement can have in driving regional economic and environmental outcomes in the EBRD countries of operation. We present the results from simulations generated by the Global Change Assessment Model by comparing outcomes under a scenario where no collaboration under Article 6 occurs between regions, and one where countries commit to an economically optimal collaboration scenario.

The modelling results show that collaboration under Article 6 can unlock economic benefits of $53 billion across EBRD regions by 2050, and $131 billion by 2100 under current ambition. This study is a contribution to the currently limited amount of research work that has sought to quantify the potential impact of broader international cooperation in the context of meeting the Paris Agreement goals.